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georgy takes no s**t 1:29 Thu Mar 2
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Watched the betfair preview last night online , my connection was poor and it kept crashing but got a few snipets, Gordon Elliot, Newsboy, Kevin Blake and Paul Nicholls were there, none of them were having Melon at the price. Interestingly Gordon Elliot said that he trains Broken Soul (who Melon beat by 8l last time out) and Broken soul wouldn't even run to 110 IRE / 105 UK. Basically saying Melon would have to run 25 lb higher than that to win a supreme.

GE also said that given Phil Smiths rating of Tombstone that he will most likely run in the Coral or County with the County being a preference.

Im going to the Walkabout (temple) tonight for a preview. Rich Ricci, Nick Luck, Paul Kealy and Joe Tizzard are there. Will report any decent info

jonthehammer 9:00 Thu Mar 2
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Flannel

Agree, i think he would be the class act in the Supreme should he show up. It all seems very quiet from the stable, not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing.

Another one i do like at a massive price is Hargam for the County at 33s. Still needs 6 to come out but is on a featherweight should he get in it. Slipped down to his lowest mark for a long time after some less than impressive displays but looks plotted up for this. Remember not long ago he was only 7 lengths behing Faugheen.
I am on NRNB

Flannel 10:27 Wed Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Did not like them suggesting Moon Racer is struggling to be fit for the festival!!!!!

Have never been so confident on a horse for the Cheltenham festival for some time (not including the no brainers such as 1/3f's)

Moon Racer fit will smash all other horses in the supreme . Gonna back him for the double with champion hurdle 2018 that morning.

jonthehammer 2:48 Wed Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

NS

That was very interesting.

As was AP saying he thinks the trip will catch out Death Duty in the AB. DR also thinks he would win the Neptune but Elliott is adamant he goes to the AB.

Northern Sold 2:09 Wed Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Interesting....


`After discussing the race a bit and just before moving on, King then says that he is just after remembering something he had heard earlier & Neon Wolf was entered on Friday & Might skip Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Said the owners don’t care too much for Cheltenham`.

jonthehammer 12:02 Wed Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

And another..

Lismore Cheltenham Preview Night

Panel :
Tony McCoy (TM)
Davy Russell (DR)
David Casey (DC)
Alan King (AK)
Noel Cummins (NC)
Henry De Bromhead (HD)
Carl Llewellyn (CL)

Night started off with Richard Phillips doing MC, as Mike Cattermole & Alan king were late arriving “Got stuck in UK”, Phillips was very good at MC & got all the panel messing & slagging each other.
McCoy hinted at numerous times during the night that he will be riding at the festival, to which DR replied “He’ll definitely do 11st 12Lb”, David Casey said McCoy could ride there alright, but he won’t get colours big enough to fit him !

Tuesday
Supreme Novice :
TM – Defi Du Seuil & Charlie Parcs will defo not run here. He likes Moon Racer, if he gets there he is the one he would be backing, as he has the form. He has beaten Ballyandy. And he also has course form.
DR – Melon being fav for this is an absolute joke. He is a lovely looking horse, but being fav after 1 run, this shouldn’t be. He thinks Finian’s Oscar should run in this. Said he has no ride in this yet, then said “We have nothing going in this have we Henry” (to De Bromhead). HD replied, he has Capital Force entered in this but the reason Davy has no ride in this is because he made a balls on him the last day! Said he will ask David Mullins & if he can’t then Davy has a chance!!!!
DC – Melon is very good, they really like him, but he beat little in Leopardstown the last day. He has heard that they are struggling to get Moon Racer fit & ready for the day & thinks he will miss the festival. Bunk Off Early is better Value @ 8/1.
NC – Melon won’t be fav on the day, said his owners are very lucky & will be 5/1 on the day. Ballyandy will go off fav & he would be his choice.
HD – He runs Capital Force, needs good ground & a good gallop. EW chance. Ballyandy is his choice as winner.
CL – Melon is inexperienced. Ballyandy very solid.

Arkle :
TM – Altior is a good thing.
DR – Yorkhill should run here. He rides Ordinary World, will ride him for a place. Altior is the best in it without Yorkhill.
DC – Yorkhill will go to the JLT. Royal Caviar will run in this, but will be running for a place. The hill might not suit him.
HD – Will run 3 in it. Identity Thief will not run. Ordinary World would probably be his pick of his 3, but they are very hard to choose between as they are all rated pretty much the same. Altior is the winner.
CL – Altior wins if he jumps. Ordinary World EW.

Champion Hurdle :
TM – Yanworth is best on official rating, but his jumping isn’t the best at times. My Tent Or Yours very good EW bet. Will defo beat The New One.
DR – Impressed by Yanworth & Buveur Dair. Brain Power not good enough for this. Petit Mouchoir very solid.
DC – They have until 8th March to supplement Limini & will wait until then to make decision. VVM is a lot better now than when she returned from Doncaster, and coming back to herself.
AK – King & Cattermole arrived just at this point. Cattermole said that on the 6hr journey across King was constantly on about Yanworth to him. King said he is really looking forward to him running.
NC – VVM is the form horse.
HD – He is completely focused on Petit Mouchoir at the moment & he is really happy with him.
CL – Yanworth isn’t a great jumper & Buveur Dair is his choice to win this.

Wednesday
Neptune Hurdle :
TM – Neon Wolf impressed him a lot. Said Harry Fry is constantly on about this horse & thinks he is the best he has had. Bacardys EW.
DR – Death Duty would defo win this, but they gonna go for AB with him. Thinks Lets Dance is being overlooked for this & has a chance.
AK – Big Neon Wolf fan. Thinks Finian’s Oscar is one to take on. Thinks his form is not good enough. He runs Messire Des Obeaux here and has an EW chance.
After discussing the race a bit and just before moving on, King then says that he is just after remembering something he had heard earlier & Neon Wolf was entered on Friday & Might skip Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Said the owners don’t care too much for Cheltenham. Said he had a horse a few yrs ago for the same owners & he had to beg them to run it at Cheltenham.
NC – Impressed with how Bacardys won the last day. Patrick gave him a great ride. Rode him patiently.
HD – He has Monalee entered and he really likes him. Said he will avoid Death Duty wherever he runs. If DD turns up here Monalee will go for the AB. Russell also ploughed in with his liking for Monalee. Most likely run here as he is surprised they are leaning towards the AB for Death Duty as he thinks he would defo win this as he has the class.

RSA Chase :
TM – Coney Island has impressed him a lot. Said he had an issue LTO & prob the reason he was beaten. Said he is better again now. Said if he owned American, he would run him in the 4 miler. Likes Mite Bite also.
DR – Will ride Whisper providing they avoid Yorkhill by running here. Said Whisper likes a bit of juice in the ground. But he isn’t overly ground dependent. Likes the course. Said Mite Bite is by Scorpion, Cattermole asked what does that mean – Davy made the puking sound, like he won’t like the hill !
DC – Was asked what do they think of this race. He said, not a lot. They will run Bellshill, but he has been to Cheltenham twice and hasn’t run his best. Thinks the track might not suit him. Said he likes Whisper if he runs.
HD – Likes Bellshill. Said they ground will be in his favour. Said the soft ground he has been running on doesn’t suit him. Said trip is ideal & doesn’t think it is the track that is the issue. Said the 2 times he has run at Cheltenham the trip was too short & that’s why he didn’t show his best. Has Herons Heights entered in this, but most likely will run him in a handicap, depending on the mark he gets (Seems to fancy him for a handicap IMO).
CL – Thinks the top 2 are very short. Likes Whisper & also thinks Disko is very tough & consistent.


Champion Chase :
TM – Douvan is exceptional & jumps like a champion chaser should. Low & fast over fences.
DR – No Contest. Absolutely loves Douvan. Thinks he is exceptional.
NC – Asked “Who rides Douvan” gave a grin, suggesting Ruby will knock him !
AK – Thinks there is a disconnection between Ruby & Douvan. Said if you look at his last run, he came out of Ruby’s hands a few times.
HD – Special Tiara will go a good lick, prob set it up for Douvan. But he is good value to be 2nd to him.

Bumper :
TM – Daphne Du Clos is best of British. But is only a 4YO.
DC – Will only run 3 in it. Ballyward will not run. Patrick will ride Carter Mackay. Start of the yr they thought their bumper horses weren’t too good, but as they all started to run they realised they aren’t too bad after all.

Thursday
JLT Novice Chase :
TM – Cannot see Top Notch beating Yorkhill. Yorkhill very impressive last yr to win in Aintree. Never seen a horse to pull so hard all the way through a race and still win the way he did.
DR – Yorkhill
DC – Yorkhill is very good. Trip suits. He is top quality, has huge ability & will take a lot of beating.
AK – Top Notch fan & surprised if he is not in shake-up.
NC – Yorkhill the one to beat. Disko has a chance if he runs.
HD – Yorkhill hard to beat.
CL – Sam Twiston-Davis is a poor judge and he thinks Politologue is a good thing. Said to completely rule this lad out.

Ryanair Chase :
TM – Would love to ride Uxizandre in this. Said the last time he rode him, the speed he shown was unreal. Thinks UDS is a slow horse & wouldn’t have him.
DR – Could ride Zabana in this race. He is entered in 2 at festival (Casey said, make sure you face him the right way this year!). Uxizandre is the best value bet of the meeting.
DC – UDS likes a bit of cut in the ground, said a bit of juice in the ground will help him. Said he is in good form & the trip is ideal for him.
AK – Uxizandre is very well in himself at the moment. He needs to go left handed. He exceeded his expectations the way he ran the last day & he worked very well on Saturday last.
NC – Likes Empire of Dirt & is a big UDS fan.
HD – Will run Sub Lieutenant in this. Didn’t say anything on him, just that he runs. There was a big cheer suggesting this has a big chance – Gigginstown in Ryanair !
CL – Josses Hill is a big girls blouse. Likes both UDS & Uxizandre. Uxi is good value.

World Hurdle :
TM – Unowhatimeanharry impressed LTO. Jezki definitely runs in this & great EW bet.
DR – Unowhatimeanharry is the bet of the meeting. Cole Harden EW.
DC – Nichols Canyon will probably wait for Punchestown. VVM could run in this but more than likely run in the mares. Thinks Jezki is the one.
AK – Cole Harden EW
NC – Shaneshill
CL – Cole Harden EW – Has had a wind op & the good ground will suit him. Unowhatimeanharry is no value. Jezki great value.


Friday
Triumph Hurdle :
TM – Defi Du Seuil is a very good jumper & fears Mega Fortune the most.
DR – Rides Mega Fortune. He stays the distance, soft ground would be better but not very ground dependent.
DC – Defi will be hard to beat. Irish form isn’t strong. They are all beating each other. Meri Devie ran well the last day & is the best of Mullins’.
AK – Master Blueyes has a huge chance. He wants it dry. Very sweet on him. Said he was always a Triumph horse & don’t mind Tom ? He knows **** all & was never gonna run in Fred Winter. Has been working unreal well the last month.

Albert Bartlett Hurdle :
TM – West Approach, his run the last day was very good form. Death Duty should go for the Neptune, thinks trip will catch him out.
DR – West Approach, Wholestone lacks the class for this race.
NC – Augusta Kate. Monalee was very good LTO in Clonmel.
HD – Monalee has a great chance if he runs in this – Depends on where Death Duty goes (Avoiding him).
CL – Wholestone lacks the class for this race. He has had a problem since his last run.

Gold Cup :
TM – More Of That is ok after his fall the LTO. He is back running to his best form from 2 yrs ago lately. Has an EW chance. Outlander is improving all the time & is his choice. Thinks Djakadam is a big player too and his prep this yr is a lot better.
DR – Worries about Cue Card. Sizing John is an unknown quantity & dunno about the trip. Djakadam has been freshened up & great decision not to go to Leopardstown with him & prep this yr is spot on. Don Poli is slow & he gave him a lot to do last yr in it. Outlander probably just gets the nod in front of Djak.
DC – Djakadam has a huge chance this yr. Doensn’t like Cue Card. Thinks Native River hasn’t improved enough. He won off 150 & ran off 150 again & only beat Raz De Maree by 1.5l. Thinks More Of That will run a big race.
NC – Cue Card won’t stay the trip. Emptied out very quickly in Ireland last yr. He is on the Djakadam bandwagon, but it is a poor renewal.
AK – Native River rock solid, but Cue Card could be the class act in the field. Fancies CC.
HD – Champagne West is in great order. Will love a test of stamina. Won well off 154 in Thyestes. Djakadam won Thyestes off 145 and has run well in GC, so thinks he has a great chance.
CL – Bristol De Mai has no chance unless it rains. Fancies Djakadam.



Handicap Tips :
TM – Beauvreuil & Bloody Mary
DR – Diamond King (Brown & Advisory) – Good Ground
DC – The Storyteller (Martin Pipe)
AK – Dino Velvet (Fred Winter) & Label Des Obeaux (Ultima)
NC – Ballyandy (Coral) – King & Cattermole started to skit at this.
HD – The Storyteller (Martin Pipe)
CL – Foxtail Hill (Close Brothers Novice Handicap – Tue)

Charity Tips :
There were stipulations here. McCoy had to pick JP handicap horse. Russell had to pick something he was riding. Casey had to pick a Mullins horse & De Bromhead had to pick one of his own.
TM – Said €50 EW on Jezki – World hurdle. Paddy Power representative said it had to be a handicap horse. McCoy said he didn’t know what was going in handicaps & after a few minutes he stood up & took out money out of his own pocket & said he will have €100ew of his own money with William Hill on Jezki.
DR – Had his €50 EW on Ordinary World in Arkle. Said he will creep around on him & finish 3rd @ 50/1.
DC – Had his €50 EW on Augusta Kate in Albert Bartlett.
AK – Had €50 win on Master Blueyes – Triumph NC – Agenieinabottle - €50 win – 4 miler HD - €50ew – Petit Mouchoir – Champ Hurdle CL - €50 win Defi Du Seuil - Triumph

jonthehammer 9:30 Wed Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Cheltenham preview night Larry Tomkins Sports Bar - Cork

Panel: Enda Bolger (EB), Nina Carberry (NC), Tony Mullins (TM)

Supreme Novices
TM -> Has a friend that does sectionals and said Bunk Off Early’s sectionals were ‘amazing’. Melon too inexperienced. Moon Racer the reliable one NC -> Very negative about Melons jumping EB -> Very sweet on Moon Racer (Mentions course form not for the only time tonight) will get up the hill

Arkle
All the panel select Altior, Tony Mullins gives an each-way shout for Charbel then goes off on a tangent defending Nico De Boinville as a jockey re ride he gave Coneygree…

Champion Hurdle
EB -> Yanworth a funny horse to get a handle on but has been laid out for this race NC -> Likes Petit Mouchoir but sees the value at 14/1 about Tombstone TM -> Absolutely says Limini wins!! equates her to Faugheen!!!! BUT says she’s at her best fresh and is not sure that the race against Apples Jade isn’t too close to the festival. Says Yanworth won’t beat the ambulance home, ran like a piebald the last day!!!

Mares Hurdle
First all NO mention of Limini!!
NC -> Willie wins but Vroum Vroum not at 100% after last race TM -> Backed up what Nina said re last time out saying Vroum Vroum and a bad blood count. Says at her age Apples Jade has had too many hard races this season EB - > Vroum Vroum Mag

NH Chase
NC -> If she could ride one in it - Alpha Des Obeaux. Agenieinabottle a leary lazy type but has been aimed at this TM -> Mouse always has then ready EB -> Edwulf the pick of JP’s and Derek O’Connor rides

Neptune
Not much was discussed about the Neptune, Tony Mullins liked Bacardys and then went off on a tangent about how people were doubting how successful Willie would be this year, he reckoned he will have a ‘savage year’

Champion Chase
Douvan has to fall twice to lose this. Not a whole lot of time spent.

Cross Country
EB -> Cantlow was 18lbs worse off last time out against the French horse meets on level weights. Gave Cause Of Causes as a dark horse, Mark Walsh has the choice (Cantlow/Auvergnat) Adrian Heskin rides the other and Derek O’Connor definitely rides Colour Squadron NC -> Cantlow a worthy fave but very competitive, gave Usuel Smurfer as a big price that won’t be far away.
TM -> Enda wins

Bumper
EB -> Connections very sweet on Western Ryder TM -> Says Carter McKay is Willie’s best but questioned its tail-carriage last time out.
NC -> Mentioned a horse of Jonjo’s that won at Chepstow last time out… have to google that one It was mentioned that of all the horses Willie lost to Gigginstown, Blow By Blow was the one he would miss most

JLT
TM -> Yorkhill the bet of the meeting
NC -> likes Disko but not good enough here EB -> Yorkhill loves going left, Ruby hugs the rail the whole way round

Ryanair
At this point Un De Sceaux’s owner came up to the stage. Waxed lyrical about UDS but!!!! Said he will NOT WIN IF THE GROUND IS GOOD!!!! Also said forecast is for rain for the next 10 days there so was optimistic BUT when he said about the ground you could hear a pin drop!!
NC -> Said that that owners run Empire Of Dirt here could be a tip in itself TM -> Dismissed bounce factor with Uxizandre said it’s been trained with race in mind

Stayers
All of the panel keen on Uknowhatimeanharry
TM-> commented that he reckons Nichols Canyon is gone at the game,
NC -> Not much of an Irish threat in this EB -> Said Barry Geraghty holds UNWIMH in highest regard

Mares Novice
Panel split here
NC -> No faults in Airlie Beach and can’t see it beaten TM -> Lets Dance has the proven class and Airlie Beach is just an improver so far EB -> Would love to see Airlie Beach win as a shout out to Kilbeggan TM -> Never underestimate the strength of a second season novice


Triumph
TM -> No fxxxing interest!! can never work it out !! move on NC -> Master Blueness impressed her last time out.
EB -> Loves Defi as a course and distance winner and said Barry Geraghty was very sweet Take this with a pinch a salt but someone on the panel said that Charles Byrnes had said that Defi Du Seuil was a BANKER!!

Albert Barlett
Got the panels interest big time as a great race!!
TM -> Hopes Death Duty wins, also gave Penhill as a horse that bled at Killarney and then came out next time and won by half the track NC -> Thinks the world of Death Duty EB -> Knows Death Duty well. Best of Irish staying novices, ticks all the boxes

Gold Cup
NC -> An open Gold Cup but very keen on Native River but it has had a hard season TM -> Native River a bit to find on ratings!! Couldn’t believe what Paddy Brennan did with Cue Card last year, to have him switched off most of the way around and then pull him out and set him alight 3 from home!! No for Outlander. Don Poli to finish 3rd, 4th or 5th EB -> Likes Native River but really fancies Djakadam

Fox hunters
EB -> On the Fringe like a pet to him, is there to be shot at but is spot on after the blow-out at Leopardstown last time out.
Panel -> Huge negative for Wonderful Charm on account of its wind problem… End gave Staker Wallace as a hunter to watch for the future..

Handicap Bets
EB -> Whatever Jamie Codd rides in the Kim Muir NC -> Southfield Royale

NAPS
TM -> Yorkhill
NC -> Death Duty
EB -> Death Duty

Value Bet
TM -> Bunk Off Early
EB -> Whatever Jamie Codd rides in the Kim Muir

Charity Bets
Came after questions and all the panel agreed how quick Cheltenham dries out so pay special attention to going and weather TM -> Yorkhill NC -> Death Duty EB -> Djakadam

It was amazing tonight how every time Enda Bolger spoke the bar quietened down!! Was very humble re getting last year’s Cross Country after Any Currency was DQ’ed, said they were beaten by the better horse

If your ever in Cork and like your racing, this is definitely one of the better preview nights!! Kudos all round .

jonthehammer 9:21 Wed Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Cheltenham on the Rock (COTR) Snippets

Segal, Millington, Jennings and Kealy on a boat with a load of bookies. #GIBCHELTPREVIEW

#COTR pretty divided opinions in the RSA. Coney Island rock solid form says the panel
Segal neither backing nor laying Melon #melon
Anyone care about the Ryanair Chase? #COTR
Champion Chase was a formality
Champion Hurdle time #COTR
West Approach gets the majority verdict in the albert Bartlett #COTR
Discussing the Cross Country now. 'French Horse' for Kealy. No one else cares #COTR
Some early rivalry as @DavidJenningsRP is saddened to learn he missed out on 50s on Shattered Love for the Neptune due to @Fagan_1987. #COTR
White Hart Church‏ @RChurchill26 3h3 hours ago

Naps of the week
Tom Segal hates Altior.
Garde La Victoire without Douvan seems to be the consensus #COTR
Golden Spear county hurdle for Segal
I hate his jumping, I hate his attitude, I hate his price. Yorkhill still wins according to Jennings. #JLT
Jennings already said David Casey is shrewdest judge in the Mullins yard!
Jennings backing Champers on Ice whatever race he runs in. #mug #COTR
Jennings reckons a fresh Djakadam is the best Djakadam. Wins. #COTR
Jennings says Squoauteur is shite

Stayer Hurdle
Jezki has a touch of class, won a Champion. Not a bad run LTO. Jennings fancies him
Segal has backed Jezki, Shaneshill and COLE HARDEN #COTR
Joseph and Davy said Yorkhill runs in the Arkle #lies
Kealy says Cole Harden can reverse form with Harry on good ground
Kealy says Lets Dance whatever she runs in. Better than Vroum Vroum Mag #COTR
Kealy thinks Lets Dance would win the Neptune
Segal and Kealy for Uxizandre. Jennings thinks UDS will win.
MTOY EW for Segal, Yanworth for Jennings, and Buveur D'Air for Kealy
This is going quite fast. Gold Cup now
Segal cannot have Native River #COTR
Segal writes off the top 5 in the market. Champagne West for him #COTR
Triumph it's Defi De Seuil for the lads #COTR
Scouser on the sofa @Fagan_1987 puts up Unowhatimeanharry as his nap #COTR

jonthehammer 11:07 Tue Feb 28
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Few snippets from the Ascot Preview NIght


Ascot – 18th Feb

Barry Orr (Betfair): On The Fringe (St James's Place Foxhunter Chase, best price 6-4)

Aidan Coleman: Defi Du Seuil (JCB Triumph Hurdle, best price 3-1)

Paul Nicholls: Wonderful Charm (St James's Place Foxhunter Chase, best price 9-2)

Ed Chamberlin (ITV Racing): Messire Des Obeaux (Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, best price 12-1)


Champion Hurdle: Yanworth. Orr and Coleman reckon he does only what he has to do, but will it be enough?
Nicholls likes Petit Mouchoir as does Orr, while Coleman leans towards Buveur D’Air, fends off interrogation about which McManus horse he’d prefer to ride. Orr fiddles with his phone, says that Barry Geraghty is 4-6 to ride Yanworth, 11-10 to sit on Buveur D’Air.
Chamberlin half-rises from his chair, the buzz coursing through him. “Are you serious?” he asks. “Never mind the horses, I’ll take Barry Geraghty to ride Buveur D’Air,” he says.

Nicholls says that Lifeboat Mona won’t finish last in the Mares’ Hurdle – he also says this about Dreamcatcher in the Fred Winter, – and gives a nudge towards Movewiththetimes in the Supreme Novices’ because he’ll prefer the better ground.

Unowhatimeanharry. “You’d want to take on the favourite,” says Orr, doing so with Ballyoptic. Coleman urges us to look for value in the direction of Cole Harden, while Nicholls says Zarkandar is solid each-way. Pens drift purposefully over notepads, mouths moue in judicious acceptance. Ve-e-ry interesting.

Orr takes on the favourite in the Gold Cup too, calling Cue Card a big player, throwing away the Irish Gold Cup form and putting his weight behind a fresh Djakadam. Coleman has eyes only for Native River, the memory of Newbury unfading, and Nicholls agrees.
Actually, first of all he says Saphir Du Rheu, but then laughs a hearty laugh and says Native River. Ve-e-ry interesting.
Chamberlin opens the floor for questions, coming among us with the microphone to pick up more personal requests. Caid Du Berlais?

Nicholls has three options and will see what the ground is like.

Takashi Miike 11:39 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

wherever Vroum Vroum goes I'm backing her

Flannel 11:11 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Mullins tour of his yard on sporting life is worth a read - few interesting pointers

Northern Sold 10:59 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Cheers Jonny boy always a interesting read... obvious Irish bias in that one for obvious reasons.... this made me laugh...

`Native River solid but might get outpaced at the finish`.


No chance

jonthehammer 8:55 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

No worries lads

I will be at the Haydock one as per last year so will do my own write up. Brian Hughes I the jockey again.

Takashi Miike 6:08 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

thanks Jon, Davey Russell is always my favourite guest at these events

Flannel 5:31 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Top man - these are always a good read. Jon you do me proud!

jonthehammer 5:23 Mon Feb 27
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights 2017

Cheltenham Preview Night - Thursday 23rd February 2017 - Ormond Hotel, Nenagh, Co. Tipperary - all proceeds go to the Injured Jockeys Fund.

The Panel;

Davy Russell (DR), National Hunt Jockey, Cheltenham Record Holder
Joseph O'Brien (JOB), Trainer, former group one winning Flat Jockey
Johnny Ward (JW), Journalist w/Irish Independent, formerly Racing Post
Dave Kenna (DK), Journalist w/The Irish Field
Kevin O'Ryan (KOR), Interviewer on At The Races, Jockey Agent

M.C. - Denis Kirwan (Racing Journalist)

Supreme;
DR – good standard of a race but thinks Melon is a disgraceful price at 3/1, will be 5/1 or 6/1 on the day. Thinks this is the race for Finian’s Oscar, made a point about him being the only G1 winner in the race.
JW – said Finian’s Oscar won’t run here!
KOR – was worried that it was a season too soon for Finian’s Oscar but Davy countered that due to the time of year he was born, he had received a full years training prior to his PTP. Likes Bunk Off Early despite being by Zebedee, stamina on the dam side and he liked the way he finished his race off at Leopardstown after running free early, and the good gallop of a Supreme will suit him.
JOB – really likes Bunk Off Early who beat a well-regarded one of theirs (Outspoken).
DK – Moon Racer has all the form, he’ll be surprised if Ruby doesn’t ride Bunk Off Early.

Arkle;
DR – thinks Yorkhill should run here as he is too keen over a distance and his jumping suffers as a result – advised taking the price in the NRNB market. If you are looking for some value, Some Plan may have been the only horse that finished the Irish Arkle (and he stressed that differing ground conditions have to be taken into account) but the time was very fast. Also mentioned Royal Caviar for the place money.
JOB – just remarked that Willie Mullins will always put the right horse in the right race. Thinks the better the race the better Yorkhill goes so this could be the race for him.
JW – doesn’t buy into the Altior hype but thinks Willie will go for the simpler option with Yorkhill (JLT)
KOR – Some Plan/Royal Caviar w/o favourite. Told a story about how Willie Mullins supplemented Wicklow Brave for the Irish Ledger two minutes before the deadline after twice denying he would run because two AOB runners were withdrawn so there was no danger of him finishing too close to the them and upsetting his mark for the Melbourne Cup. There is no grand plan and everything is fluid – Willie Mullins is going to do what he wants to do and doesn’t give a f**k about anyone else.

Champion Hurdle;
DK – likes Limini if supplemented in a very open race. Petit Mouchoir probably has the best form this year but it looks weak. Yanworth not good enough. Jessie is very happy with Jezki. Tombstone will be supplemented.
DR – thinks Nichols Canyon is the best horse in the race on form and they should make the running with him. Thinks Buveur D’Air jumping style suits a return to hurdles but would hate to see Yorkhill returned to hurdles. Would like to ride Tombstone in the race if he was supplemented.
JW – really likes Yanworth and thinks he has no holes. Rang Willie about Limini and although he didn’t get an answer, he thinks she will be supplemented. Doesn’t think Yorkhill will go Gold Cup next year and thinks he will be kept over shorter distances.
KOR – Petit Mouchoir has no chance. Thinks Yanworth is the one, feels that Barry has never gotten to the bottom of him. Will be shocked if Limini isn’t supplemented, and you can draw a line through her final run of last season. Made the point about all the excuses being made for Apples Jade when it was Limini’s first run of the season and thinks the form will stand.

Neptune;
DR – great race with great depth, thinks it is the race for Death Duty as he has class and AB runners usually need 3 miles minimum as a necessity which Death Duty doesn’t. NRNB 16/1.
JOB – thinks Augusta Kate would have given Death Duty plenty to think about if she had stood up the last day and fancies her to sneak around and pick up a few pieces.
JW – thinks Davy might be on to something here as Gigginstown are short on options here.
DK – Neon Wolf is the best horse in the race, Death Duty looks slow. If Bunk Off Early goes well in the Supreme then Bacardys would have a great chance.
KOR – Bacardys if Death Duty or Finian’s Oscar don’t show up here.

RSA;
DK – likes Coney Island for this and feels the form of the Drinmore could be the most solid with a view to Cheltenham having run on Good to Yielding ground. Doesn’t think Disko is good enough. Can’t have Alpha Des Obeaux as he bleeds.
DR – defended his ride behind Acapella Bourgois saying he couldn’t go any faster but doesn’t think the AB is good enough to win an RSA. Might Bite is nicely bred. He would be very surprised if Whisper ran or won. A proper 3 miler is require for this and he thinks an outsider will win. Mentioned Martello Tower @25/1 as his idea of the winner. Thinks it is harder than the 4 miler because of the classier opposition. Debunked the ‘myth’ about the RSA breaking horses – it might break bad horses but the good ones go on and win Gold Cups.
M.C. - last 19 winners of the Feltham have failed to win an RSA?
JOB – Might Bite needs to run half a stone better than his current mark to win.
JW – Might Bite by Scorpion and is a bit of a character – would like to see him go eye to eye with something in a tight finish and see what happens. Backed Alpha Des Obeaux and remarked that Mouse loves him.
KOR – Edwulf is like a drunk leaving a nightclub (like this one on a Saturday night)!

Champion Chase;
DK – just enjoy Douvan, can see Special Tiara chasing him home.
JOB – any decent opposition will reroute to the Ryanair.
JW – Douvan best horse he has ever seen and would run him in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday and the Champion Chase on Wednesday since the CC would be an easy procession of a race.
KOR – Cop to f**k on!
DR – after running in a Champion Hurdle he would be walking around for a week with his head between his legs in recovery mode. He implored Johnny Ward for the sake of his journalistic career not to write such an article!

Bumper;
JOB – Carter McKay impressive at Naas but it was a farce of a race, just a sprint to the line. He rode him prior to being sold to current owners and he liked him but not overly so. Thinks the ground will be too quick for West Coast Time. Thinks there will be a big priced winner.
DK – WPM used to have 5 or 6 in this but now might have two at most. Thinks it is a very hard race on young horses.
JW – Gigginstown no interest in the bumper but they paid 300k for a horse in Samcro that had no form and that is the way the game has gone.
*this led to a debate about whether the Potts, Gigginstown and JP throwing vast quantities of money around for horses is a good thing or not?

JLT;
DR – Yorkhill far superior to the others but his keenness could make him vulnerable. Likes Disko as he jumps and travels well. Also likes Top Notch and reminded everybody that the English are going to win plenty of races and we can get too fixated on the Irish runners.
DK – between the top two in the market (Yorkhill and Top Notch).

Ryanair;
DR – Empire Of Dirt will run here (claims to know this for a fact), needs a career best and probably some juice in the ground but would stay 5 miles in his opinion. Uxizandre one of his bets of the whole week – ticks every box with the headgear on. UDS too ground dependant.
JW – Empire Of Dirt has a good chance.
JOB – fancies Uxizandre and feels he will be ridden more positively with the reapplication of blinkers.
DK – Un De Sceaux is his banker of the week. Empire Of Dirt only a handicapper.
KOR – Irish Gold Cup wasn’t an end to end gallop and he feels Empire Of Dirt would have his stamina stretched in a Gold Cup and is better suited to here. Feels he has proven himself to be better than a handicapper.

Stayers;
DR – Unowhatimeanharry is the ideal stayers horse – keeps plenty to himself. Great training performance from his handlers throughout his career.
JOB – JP McManus has a strong hand in this.
JW – disappointed with Jezki the last day and felt he only beat a 2 miler in Hurricane Fly when he won over 3 miles previously.
DK – Unowhatimeanharry is a banker, may drift out a little on the day.
KOR – sees no chinks in the favourite.

Triumph;
DR – Mega Fortune doesn’t need soft ground but is more effective on it. Likes Landofhopenandglory if the ground comes up quick.
JOB – Mega Fortune has a great chance and the Irish form looks strong.
JW – although Housesofparliament is out of the festival, he feels that Merie Devie’s defeat of that horse represents good form and she ran a fast time.
DK – hard to assess the English form and feels Geraghty is the man to ask. Too much flip flopping in the Irish form. Thought Dinaria Des Obeaux and Merie Devie were the value and the ones to take out of the Spring Hurdle. Merie Devie not at her best the last day and thinks Ruby will ride her.
KOR – thinks Dinaria Des Obeaux and Mega Fortune will fight out the finish and that the latter will eat up the Cheltenham hill and is one of his bets of the festival (to which Davy responded that he needed his head examined!). Feels Elliott was forced into the application of cheek pieces earlier than he would have wanted because he is chasing the trainers title (previously would have waited until the festival to apply them).

Albert Bartlett;
DK – feels the Peregrine Run/Wholestone form is not strong enough, also questioned the strength of the Death Duty form. Feels West Approach 3rd in the Cleeve best form on the table suggesting he has improved the most and makes him the most likely winner.
JOB – thinks Bacardys was ridden last time with this distance in mind and likes him.
DR – likes West Approach and Wholestone (good hardy type) but thinks Bacardys will win. Monalee also has a good shout. Despite PTP’ers having a good profile for this race, Death Duty goes Neptune.
KOR – likes Constantine Bay form and feels he has a good each way shout.
JW – more derision directed at Ward for suggesting Penhill as a likely winner having had his form franked by Call The Taxie (a horse ridden to victory by Davy Russell who was the first to scoff at the suggestion that Penhill was good enough stating that he can’t jump and he bleeds).

Gold Cup;
DR – Don Poli very slow and doesn’t like going any quicker. He is a neat jumper but if he winged his fences he might have a better chance to win. Doesn’t think he is suited to a National as his jumping is too slow. Was all about Thistlecrack at the start of the year thinking his jumping would improve but actually felt it dis-improved – he didn’t think he would win it but felt it was a shame he wouldn’t run all the same. Native River in the same mould as Denman and the likes of those win Gold Cups. Sizing John has huge ability if he stays (more like a Kauto Star)
JOB – Don Poli good price for a place but doesn’t think he can win.
JW – Native River solid but might get outpaced at the finish. Told two stories about Alan Potts – when Sizing Europe won the Champion Chase Potts remarked, “it’s not the f**king Gold Cup now is it” and also that Potts apparently offered 3 million pounds for Thistlecrack – the point being Potts is obsessed with winning the Gold Cup.
DK – likes Djakadam in a less than vintage edition and thinks he should have won the Lexus. Feels Cue Card might have a chance with a different jockey and can’t forgive Brennan for last year.
KOR – Djakadam wasn’t made full use of in the Lexus so would be his idea of the winner, Cue Card has no chance as an 11yo, Outlander not good enough and Sizing John won’t stay (this point got a reaction from the crowd).

Questions from the audience;
I asked Davy Russell how Presenting Percy compared to Mall Dini and he said Mall Dini was a better jumper but that he has been very disappointed with Mall Dini this year and he may not even go to Cheltenham as he felt he may not handle the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap.

Just to note I found all this a bit hard to believe because Mall Dini has jumped beautifully this year for the most part and has been running over too short a distance and ground softer than ideal.

He didn’t show any enthusiasm for Presenting Percy (which is another good sign imo!) and overall there was little or no insight into the handicaps from the panel. Davy didn’t even know what horses he was riding in the handicaps apparently! He half-heartedly mentioned Diamond King but warned he was on a slightly higher mark than last year.

Charity Bets;
DR – Uxizandre Ryanair / Unowhatimeanharry Stayers
JOB - Uxizandre Ryanair (mentioned Ivanovich Gorbatov would have an each way chance in the County Hurdle)
JW – Penhill AB / Movewiththetimes Supreme
DK – Coney Island RSA
KOR – Mega Fortune Triumph / Cause Of Causes X Country
M.C. Denis Kirwan – Bunk Off Early Supreme

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